The geopolitical game of powers is returning to Power Politics, abandoning the constructivist international order. Regional powers are consolidating their influence in the immediate neighbourhood and expanding it, competing for advantage in so-called ‘crumple zones’.

This creates a problem in international manoeuvring for medium-sized states. They must skilfully create a system of alliances and selectively identify areas for modernising their economic and military potential.

The moment that woke the world up was the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. Britain’s exit from the European Union changed the balance of power in Europe. The international economic order faced the challenge of separating supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly accelerated emerging trends of global polycentrisation.

The big test for the international order and the agility of states is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

What really counts in the game of powers is the ability to play with one’s power in time and space, not the game of statistics.